CAIE Centre for AI
Economics
Strategic Report 2025

From Algorithmic Scale
to Economic Structure.

We are the first policy institute dedicated to modeling the financial, labor, and macro-structural impacts of the transition to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). We bridge the gap between compute engineering and central banking.

Global AI Economy Monitor
Updated Quarterly
Global AI CapEx Annualized Training Infrastructure
$423B
▲ UBS Forecast '25
Compute Cost Index $/PetaFLOP-day (Frontier Models)
$42
▼ 96% (YoY)
AI Labor Displacement CAIE Estimate (Knowledge Workers)
85M
Global (Broad Impact)
⚡ Breaking
OpenAI closes $40B funding round at $300B valuation — largest private raise in history EU Commission releases draft framework on "Sovereign Compute" allocations for member states TSMC Arizona Fab 2 timeline adjusted to Q3 2026 amid equipment delays Goldman Sachs revises AI infrastructure spend forecast to $1T by 2027 CAIE releases Q3 Labor Displacement Report — services sector shows 23% automation exposure China's domestic GPU production reaches 15% of frontier training capacity Federal Reserve Chair acknowledges "structural uncertainty" from AI in rate guidance Anthropic's Claude 4 reportedly matches PhD-level reasoning in internal benchmarks
OpenAI closes $40B funding round at $300B valuation — largest private raise in history EU Commission releases draft framework on "Sovereign Compute" allocations for member states TSMC Arizona Fab 2 timeline adjusted to Q3 2026 amid equipment delays Goldman Sachs revises AI infrastructure spend forecast to $1T by 2027 CAIE releases Q3 Labor Displacement Report — services sector shows 23% automation exposure China's domestic GPU production reaches 15% of frontier training capacity Federal Reserve Chair acknowledges "structural uncertainty" from AI in rate guidance Anthropic's Claude 4 reportedly matches PhD-level reasoning in internal benchmarks
March 13-15, 2026

Inaugural Conference on AI Economics

Global Virtual Conference 🌐 Online Only

Bringing together leading macroeconomists, machine learning researchers, and policymakers to define the post-AGI economic framework.

Call for Papers

Research Pillars

View Methodology →
The Inputs

The Industrial Economy

Analyzing the physical constraints of AI—energy, silicon, and capital expenditure. We examine how the 'Compute Standard' is emerging as a new form of currency.

The Transition

Labor Market Dynamics

Moving beyond simple unemployment statistics to model wage compression, productivity paradoxes, and wealth redistribution in high-automation sectors.

The Future

Post-Scarcity Models

Theoretical frameworks for ASI. How do central banks and taxation systems function when the marginal cost of intelligence approaches zero?

Critical Questions

Archive →
OCT 24, 2025

The $7 Trillion Chip Request: Inflationary Risk?

Analyzing the fundraising goals for global compute infrastructure not as a tech ambition, but as a global inflation risk.

OCT 18, 2025

Sovereign AI: The New Mercantilism

Nations are beginning to treat foundation models like national stockpiles. We analyze the shift from globalized trade to digital protectionism.

SEP 30, 2025

Defining the 'Post-Labor' Metric

Why GDP is becoming a broken metric for high-automation economies, and the search for new measurements of human flourishing.